Irlande - Confiance des consommateurs

The KBC Bank Irish consumer sentiment index increased to 77.1 in November 2019 from the six-year low of 69.5 recorded in October, as the reduced risks of a ‘crash-out’ Brexit and the reality of a still healthy Irish economy provided some relief from recent gloom. All five main elements of the index posted sharp monthly gains in November: general economic outlook (29.3 vs 20.4); outlook for unemployment (56.4 vs 51.2); personal financial situation 12 months ago (96.3 vs 89.1); personal financial situation 12 months ahead (91.1 vs 79.9); and major purchases (112.2 vs 107.1).

The KBC Bank Irish consumer sentiment index fell for a fourth straight month to 69.5 in October 2019 from 75.3 in the previous month. That was the weakest reading since August 2013, reflecting continuous nervousness around Brexit and disappointment with Budget 2020. Sentiment deteriorated for the general economic outlook (20.4 vs 22.5 in September); unemployment (51.2 vs 51.1); consumer expectations (50.5 vs 54.1); and personal financial situation (89.1 vs 97.1) and major purchases (107.1 vs 116.9).

The KBC Consumer Sentiment Index in Ireland fell to 75.3 in September 2019, the lowest since November 2013, from 77.2 in the previous month. That was the third straight month of decline in morale, as concerns about a chaotic Brexit made consumers more nervous about the outlook for the Irish economy in general and their personal finances in particular. Four of the five main components of the index declined: general economic outlook (22.5 vs 25.7 in August); unemployment outlook (51.1 vs 54.0); household finances in the past 12 months (97.1 vs 99.7); and household finances over the next 12 months (88.7 vs 91.7). Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the buying climate rose marginally (116.9 vs 115.1).

The KBC Bank Irish consumer sentiment index fell to 77.2 in August 2019 from 85.5 in the previous month. That was the weakest reading since November 2013, largely due to Brexit-related risks, as the outlook for the Irish economy deteriorated materially on a clearly increased threat that the UK could crash out of the EU without a deal. The fall was broadly based with all of the five main elements of the sentiment index recording weaker readings: general economic outlook (25.7 from 33.2); outlook for unemployment (54.0 from 70.9); household finances in the past 12 months (99.7 from 105.8); expectations for household finances over the next 12 months (91.7 from 99.0); and major purchases (115.1 from 118.9).

The KBC Bank Irish consumer sentiment index fell to 85.5 in July 2019 from 90.5 in the previous month. That was the weakest reading since November 2014, largely due to Brexit-related risks, as the twelve month outlook for the Irish economy weakened materially on a clearly increased threat that the UK could crash out of the EU within that time frame. Almost mechanically, the risks of weaker economic conditions translated into a more cautious outlook for jobs, while Irish consumers downgraded their expectations for their own personal finances. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of how their financial circumstances had evolved through the past twelve months improved.

Consumer confidence in Ireland rose to a three month-high of 90.7 in June from 89.9 in thre previous month, boosted by strong domestic economic data in recent months. Consumers were marginally more positive about the outlook for the Irish economy and jobs and their own household finances in the past twelve months. Meanwhile, household finances over the next twelve months weakened slightly, due to Bexit related uncertainties. "A renewed focus on the risk of a ‘hard Brexit’ from October 31st may see sentiment sour again," KBC Bank Ireland chief economist Austin Hughes said, referring to Britain's current planned EU exit date. "However, in the near term, an element of Brexit fatigue may be causing consumers to switch attention away from such risks to the reality of healthy Irish economic conditions at present."