Kazakhstan - Taux d'intérêt

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark base rate at 9.25 percent during its October meeting, as widely expected. In September, the annual inflation dropped to 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent in August, while according to National Bank’s estimates the inflation will be within the target range of 4 percent – 6 percent at the end of the year. Policymakers noted main risks from external conditions include the extreme volatility in oil prices and the unfinished trade war between the US and China.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised its benchmark overnight policy by 25 bps to 9.25 percent on September 9th, 2019 while markets had anticipated it to remain steady at 9 percent. Policymakers noticed that upside risks to inflation continued to rise due to an increase in domestic demand. The annual inflation rate slowed to 5.2 percent in August 2019, from 5.4 percent in July, but remained at the top of the target corridor of 4 percent – 6 percent.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark base rate at 9.0 percent during its July meeting, saying that current monetary policy stance is adequate to guarantee that inflation will be within the target range of 4 percent – 6 percent at the end of 2019, but warned it could hike it later this year if it saw greater risks to its inflation target. The Bank added that the inflation rate in Kazakhstan increased in June (5.4 percent from 5.3 percent in May), mainly due to higher food prices. Policymakers noted main risks from external conditions include the extreme volatility in oil prices and the unfinished trade war between the US and China.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark base rate at 9.0 percent on June 3rd, 2019. Policymakers noted that inflationary expectations continued to be lower than annual inflation while according to National Bank’s estimates the inflation will be within the target range of 4 percent – 6 percent at the end of 2019. The Bank also noted that the inflation rate in Kazakhstan increased in May (5.3 percent from 4.9 percent in April), mainly due to higher food prices. Policymakers added that the main risk from external conditions remains tension in trade relations between the US and other countries.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan trimmed its benchmark base rate by 25bps to 9 percent on April 15th, surprising markets who expected no changes. It is the first cut in borrowing cost so far this year. Policymakers said that the current decision will maintain control over the prevailing inflation background within the target range (4 percent – 6 percent) and will support economic growth. The Committee noted a slowdown in consumer prices and a positive external environment. Policymakers also said that inflation is expected to continue to decline and that the following monetary policy decisions will depend on the correspondence of the actual inflation rate and forecasts for the current year and for 2020.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark base rate at 9.25 percent on March 4th, 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers noted that annual inflation continued to decline in February (4.8 percent from 5.2 percent in January) although inflationary risks persist. Inflation is seen at 4 percent-6 percent in 2019. Policymakers added that concerns related to the deterioration of the external environment appeared less likely to materialise, as Brent oil price is above $65 per barrel, compared to the below $55 per barrel in the second half of December 2018.