Pologne - PMI manufacturier

The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI edged up to 46.7 in November of 2019 from 45.6 in October, compared to market expectations of 46.6. The reading pointed to the 13th straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector albeit slower than in the previous month. Yet, November's figure was the second-lowest since July 2009. New orders, export orders and output continued to decrease although at slower paces. Also, a lack of incoming new orders was reflected in a further steep decrease in backlogs of work; and the rate of job cuts remained was unchanged from the previous month. On the price front, input price inflation was the weakest since September of 2016, mainly due to drops in steel prices and average output charges rose marginally. Finally, business confidence dropped further: expectations towards output in a year’s time moderated to the lowest since this series began in 2012, reflecting a sustained decline in demand and generally weaker economic forecasts.

The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI slumped to 45.6 in October 2019 from 47.8 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 48.1. The latest reading pointed to the steepest contraction in the sector since June 2009. It was also the biggest month-on-month fall in the headline figure in three-and-a-half years. New orders dropped at the fastest rate since April 2009, with export sales falling the most in more than a decade, and production contracted by the most since June 2009. This led to more job cuts and reduced purchasing activity. On the price front, input cost inflation eased to a three-year low while output charges declined for the first time in three years. Finally, business confidence was the weakest since the series began in 2012, amid signs of an economic slowdown, especially in Europe.

The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI edged down to 47.8 in September of 2019 from 48.8 in August and against market expectations of 47.9. The manufacturing sector remained in contraction for the eleventh straight month, as new orders declined at the fastest in over ten years. In addition, output, purchasing and backlogs all dropped at faster rates. On the price front, input cost increased at the quickest pace in four months while output prices were unchanged. Finally, manufacturer’s optimism regarding production over the next year dropped to the lowest level since 2012.

The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.8 in August of 2019 from July's 75-month low of 47.4 and above market expectations of 47.6. The reading pointed to the tenth consecutive monthly decline in factory activity but the softest since May. Output, new orders and employment fell at a softer pace. On the price front, input prices rose at the third-slowest rate in around three years while output prices increased at the fastest rate since March. Finally, the 12-month outlook for production was little-changed from July's 79-month low.

The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.4 in July of 2019 from 48.4 in the previous month and below market expectations of 48. The reading pointed to the largest contraction in factory activity since April of 2013, with new orders falling sharply and firms reducing output and employment levels. Also, input purchases declined at the sharpest rate in over six years, as stocks of inputs registered the first monthly contraction since September 2018. On the price front, input price inflation rose only fractionally, while output prices slowed for the fourth straight month and at the softest pace recorded on the current 33-month sequence of inflation.

The IHS Markit Poland Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.4 in June 2019 from 48.8 in the previous month and below market expectations of 48.9. The reading pointed to the eighth successive month of contraction in factory activity and the strongest since February. New orders declined further and the most in 2019 so far, mainly due to domestic demand, given that exports fell at the slowest rate in seven months. As a result, output was cut steeply. On a more positive note, employment rose for the first time in five months; and stocks of purchases increased for the ninth straight month. On the price front, input inflation was the slowest since October 2016, linked to the stronger zloty-euro exchange rate. Also, output prices rose the least in the current 32-month sequence of inflation. Looking ahead, sentiment was the weakest since December 2012.