France - Confiance des entreprises

The industrial confidence indicator in France edged up to 100 in November 2019 from a four-and-a-half-year low of 99 in the previous month, in line with market consensus. The industrialists balance of opinion on overall order books recovered slightly (-14 vs -15 in October) as export order books bounced back (-15 vs -19). Meanwhile, the assessment of the past production declined (2 vs 3), as well as personal production prospects (1 vs 2). General production prospects also worsened and reached the lowest level since August 2014 (-3 vs -1). Considering employment, the balance of opinion on the past variation was steady (at -1) and the one on prospects improved very slightly (-1 vs -2).

France's business climate indicator in industry fell to 99 in October 2019 from 102 in the previous month and below market expectations of 102, reaching its lowest level since March 2015. The balance of opinion on overall order books (-15 vs -10 in September) dropped sharply, following two months of improvements; and that on export books (2 vs 3) declined. Manufacturers were less optimistic about their opinion on personal production expectations (-1 vs 3) while the general production prospects for the sector as a whole improved (4 vs 2). Additionally, sentiment deteriorated regarding past activity (13 vs 16). As regards employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size went down (0 vs 2) while the one on expected workforce size was steady (at 4).

France's business climate indicator in industry stood at 102 in September 2019, little-changed from a revised 103 in the previous month and in line with market expectations. The balance of opinion on overall order books (-11 vs -13 in August) increased further from its lowest level over four years hit in July; and that on export books (-9 vs -10) rose again after reaching a five-year low in June. Manufacturers were more optimistic on the general production prospects for the sector as a whole (4 vs 2), while their opinion on personal production expectations (6 vs 9) and on past activity (4 vs 5) deteriorated. As regards employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size has bounced back (2 vs 0) while the one on expected workforce size increased a bit again (0 vs -1).

The French industrial sentiment indicator rose to 102 in August 2019 from 101 in the previous month and slightly above market forecasts of 101. Industrialists were more optimistic about overall production outlook for the sector as a whole (2 from 0 in July) and on their personal production expectations (8 from 7). Also, the balance on their global order books improved after reaching its lowest in four years (-14 from -16) and the balance of opinion on export books increased for the second consecutive month (-14 from -16). Meanwhile, the balance for the sector past activity lost 3 points (5 from 8). Regarding employment, the balance of opinion on the past evolution was stable (0 from 1) and that of expected workforce size advanced slightly (-1 from -2).

The French industrial sentiment indicator fell to 101 in July 2019 from 102 in the previous month and below market expectations of 102, as industrialists are less optimistic about the overall production outlook for the sector as a whole (0 from 2 in June). However, the balance for the sector past activity (7 from 8) and on their personal production expectations (at 6, the same as in June) was virtually stable. Meantime, the balance on their global order books deteriorated (-16 from -13), reaching its lowest level since July 2015, while the balance of opinion on export books has increased (-15 from -17). Regarding employment, the balance of opinion on the past evolution (-1 from 1) and that of expected workforce size (-2 from -1) deteriorated.

The French industrial sentiment indicator fell to 102 in June 2019 from 104 in the previous month and below market expectations of 104. The balance of industrialists’ opinion on their personal production expectations deteriorated (8 vs 12 in May) while on their past activity rose (8 vs 4). Additionally, manufacturers were less optimistic about the general production prospects for the sector (3 vs 4) and they reported a decline in export orders books (-17 vs -9) recording its lowest level since October 2014. Regarding employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size dropped (1 vs 2), while that on expected workforce was stable (at 0).