Australie - Confiance des consommateurs

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index for Australia rebounded 4.5 percent month-over-month from its lowest level since July 2015 to 97.0 in November 2019, as interest rates kept steady in the last RBA meeting; trade policy uncertainty improved marginally, and prospects of a lower personal income taxes lifted sentiment. Family finances for the next 12 months jumped the most (+5.7% to 98.6); while time to buy a major household item rose 3% to 117.9, well below its long run average and suggesting consumers will be keeping a tight rein on discretionary spending. Economic conditions for the next 12 months and 5 years increased 4% and 5.2% to 90.6 and 93.5 points, respectively. Meantime, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index went up 3.6% to 136.5, its highest reading since June 2017, as consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead amid a slowdown in jobs growth and steady increases in jobless and underemployment rates.

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index for Australia plunged 5.5 percent month-over-month to 92.8 in October 2019, reaching its lowest level since July 2015. The decline came in as people were more cautious about the economy and despite a further rate cut from the RBA at its October meeting. The survey's measure of economic outlook for the next five years slumped 9.1% (88.9 vs 97.8 in September) and that for the next 12 months dropped 6% (87.1 vs 92.6). Also, the measure of family finances compared to a year ago fell 4.9% (80.2 vs 84.3) and that for the next 12 months declined 3.7% (93.3 vs 96.9). In addition, the index of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item decreased 4.2 percent (114.5 vs 119.6).

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index for Australia dropped by 1.7 percent over a month earlier to 98.2 in September 2019 from 100 in August. The decline came in as people were cautious regarding the economy on the back of rising global headwinds and despite signs of revival in the housing market and the recent RBA interest rate cuts. The survey's measure of economic conditions for the next 12 months (92.6 from 95.5 in August), the gauge of family finances compared to a year ago (84.3 from 86.5) and personal finances expectations (96.9 from 99.1) dropped. In addition, the index of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item decreased to 123.3 from 126.9 in August. Meantime, the gauge of economic outlook for the next five years rose to 97.8 from 95.7, indicating that some of the difficulties currently facing the economy are expected to dissipate over time.

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index for Australia increased 3.6 percent to 100 in August 2019 from July's two-low, as people became more upbeat following the Federal election results and the recent RBA interest rate cuts, while further signs of improvement in the property market also supported. The survey's measure of economic conditions for the next 12 months soared 9.6 percent and that of economic outlook for the next five years rose 4.5 percent, with fears of job loss easing slightly (-0.8 percent). Also, the gauge of family finances compared to a year ago advanced 0.9 percent, the highest in five months, and the gauge measuring expected personal finances rose 0.7 percent. Meantime, the index of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item went up 2.8 percent.

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index for Australia declined by 4.1 percent month-over-month to 96.5 in July 2019 from 101.3 in the previous month. It was the lowest reading since August 2017, as concerns regarding the Australian economy outlook and prospects for family finances outweighed any near term support from the prospect of lower interest rates and tax relief. The survey's measure of economic conditions for the next 12 months slumped 12.3 percent, the weakest level in four years, and the index of family finances over the next 12 months tumbled 8 percent, moving back into net pessimistic territory for the first time since late 2017. Also, the economic outlook for the next five years fell by 6.7 percent, amid rising fears of job loss (5.8 percent). Meanwhile, the gauge of family finances compared to a year ago advanced 3 percent to a five-month high and the index of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item rose 3.6 percent.

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index for Australia declined by 0.6 percent month-over-month to 100.7 in June 2019 from 101.3 in the previous month. The latest reading suggested that deepening concerns about the slowdown in the economy had outweighed the initial boost from lower rates. The survey's measure of economic conditions for the next 12 months slumped 4.7 percent, and the gauge of family finances compared to a year ago dropped by 2.4 percent. Also, the index of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item edged down 0.2 percent, amid rising fears of job loss (5.1 percent). Meanwhile, the economic outlook for the next five years rose by 1 percent, and the index of family finances over the next 12 months advanced 3.1 percent.