Americans Head to the Polls Waiting for Stimulus

The US Presidential election on November 3rd 2020 will be one of the more atypical in the US history. It happens in the middle of a pandemic, with early voting surging, both by mail and in person. Anxiety and uncertainty about the results mount not only because the result may take too long to be known but because investors fear a contested result. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 11/3/2020 8:36:02 AM
According to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida, near 100 million Americans have already voted, and a rise in mail-in voting is raising concerns that it might take a lot of time to know the election results as officials process much more mail-in ballots than usual. President Trump recently threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots if they arrive after election day. Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden has been leading the polls for a long time but four years ago polls proved to be wrong and Donald Trump won. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery. Yet, personal spending surged and was the main driver of a record 33.1% annualized growth in Q3, helped by checks and weekly unemployment benefits from the federal CARES Act. Indeed, many people are still unemployed as the economy only recovered nearly half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. Democrats have been pushing a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and Biden's campaign includes additional checks to families; forgiving a minimum of $10,000 per person of federal student loans; and increasing monthly Social Security checks by $200/month. Republicans proposed a package worth around $1.8 trillion stimulus although President Trump said he would agree to go higher than the $1.8 trillion. Moreover, the new administration will have to deal with a pandemic far from being controlled while a vaccine for coronavirus is not ready yet. 






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03/11/2020 Actuel Précédent Consensus Prévisions
03:30 AM
AU
Rba Décision De Taux D'Intérêt 0.1% 0.25% 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 AM
TR
Taux D'Inflation (Annuel) OCT 11.89% 11.75% 11.9% 11.5%
10:00 AM
DE
Discours de la Bundesbank Mauderer
11:00 AM
BR
Procès-verbal de la réunion de la BCB Copom
12:00 PM
MX
Confiance Des Entreprises OCT 41.5 40.7 ® 41
03:00 PM
US
Ordres D'Usine (Mensuel) SEP 1.1% 0.6% ® 1% 0.6%
04:00 PM
DE
Discours de cour de la Bundesbank
06:00 PM
BR
Balance Commerciale OCT $5.5B $6.2B $6.1B $6B
06:00 PM
DE
Discours de la Bundesbank Mauderer
09:30 PM
US
Changement de stock d'huile brute API OCT/30 -8.01M 4.577M 1.964M
10:00 PM
AU
Services De Markit Pmi Final OCT 53.7 50.8 53.8
11:50 PM
JP
Boj Politique Monétaire Rendu De La Réunion
US
Election Présidentielle
EA
Eurogroup Video Conference
04/11/2020 Actuel Précédent Consensus Prévisions
12:30 AM
AU
Vente au détail (mensuelle) finale SEP -1.1% -4% -1.5% -1.5%
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Pmi Services OCT 56.8 54.8 54
08:00 AM
ES
Le Taux De Chômage Changement OCT 49.6K -26.3K 65K
08:15 AM
ES
Markit Pmi Services OCT 41.4 42.4 40 40.6
08:45 AM
IT
HS - Note le - Prestations de service - PME OCT 46.7 48.8 47 46.6
08:50 AM
FR
Services De Markit Pmi Final OCT 46.5 47.5 46.5 46.5
08:55 AM
DE
Services De Markit Pmi Final OCT 49.5 50.6 48.9 48.9
09:00 AM
EA
Services De Markit Pmi Final OCT 46.9 48 46.2 46.2
09:30 AM
GB
Markit / CIPS UK Services PMI Finale OCT 51.4 56.1 52.3 52.3
12:00 PM
BR
Production Industrielle (Mensuel) SEP 2.6% 3.6% ® 2.2% 2.6%
01:15 PM
US
Variation De L'Emploi Adp OCT 365K 753K ® 650K 590K
01:30 PM
CA
Balance Commerciale SEP C$-3.25B C$-3.21B ® C$-2.6B C$ -2.6B
01:30 PM
US
Balance Commerciale SEP $-63.9B $-67B ® $-63.8B $ -63.1B
02:45 PM
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Markit Pmi Composite Final OCT 56.3 54.3 55.5
02:45 PM
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Services De Markit Pmi Final OCT 56.9 54.6 56
03:00 PM
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Ism Non Manufacturier Business Activity OCT 61.2 63 62 60
03:00 PM
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Ism Non Manufacturier Emploi OCT 50.1 51.8 52
03:00 PM
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Ism Non Manufacturier Nouvelles Commandes OCT 58.8 61.5 61
03:00 PM
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Ism Pmi Non-Manufacturier OCT 56.6 57.8 57.5 57
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Ism Non Manufacturier Prix OCT 63.9 59 58
03:30 PM
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Eie Stocks De Pétrole Brut Changent OCT/30 -7.998M 4.32M 0.89M
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EIA Cushing Changement des stocks de pétrole brut OCT/30 0.936M -0.422M
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Changement des stocks de distillat EIA OCT/30 -1.585M -4.491M -2.023M
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Eie Stocks D'Essence Changer OCT/30 1.541M -0.892M -0.871M
EU
EcoFin Video Conference
05/11/2020 Actuel Précédent Consensus Prévisions
12:00 AM
US
Total Des Ventes De Véhicules OCT 16.2M 16.3M
12:30 AM
AU
Balance Commerciale SEP A$5.630B A$2.618B ® A$2.1B
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun - Banque - Prestations de service - PME - Final OCT 47.7 46.9 46.6 46.6
04:00 AM
ID
Pib Taux De Croissance En Glissement Trimestriel Q3 5.05% -4.19% 5.34% 5%
04:00 AM
ID
Taux De Croissance Du Pib (Annuel) Q3 -3.49% -5.32% -3% -3.2%
07:00 AM
DE
Ordres D'Usine (Mensuel) SEP 0.5% 4.9% ® 2% 1.5%
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GB
Décision De Taux D'Intérêt Boe 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
07:00 AM
GB
BoE - MPC - Vote - Couper 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
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Boe Mpc Votez Randonnée 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
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Vote BoE MPC inchangé 9/9 9/9 9/9 9/9
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Boe Assouplissement Quantitatif £875B £745B £825B £845B
07:00 AM
GB
Rapport sur la politique monétaire
07:00 AM
GB
Pv Réunion Mpc
08:30 AM
DE
Construction - Pmi OCT 45.2 45.5 44.4
09:30 AM
GB
Construction - Pmi OCT 53.1 56.8 55 54.4
10:00 AM
EA
Ventes au détail (mensuelles) SEP -2% 4.2% ® -1% -1.4%
10:00 AM
EA
Ventes au détail (annuelles) SEP 2.2% 4.4% ® 2.8% 2.5%
11:30 AM
ES
Confiance Des Consommateurs OCT 48.5 49.5 44.9
11:40 AM
EA
Discours de la BCE Guindos
12:00 PM
MX
Confiance Des Consommateurs OCT 37.6 36.3 ® 36.1
12:00 PM
GB
Sunak Statement on COVID Support
01:00 PM
BR
Markit Pmi Services OCT 52.3 50.4 51
01:30 PM
US
Revendications chômage initiales OCT/31 751K 758K ® 732K 745K
01:30 PM
US
Demandes de chômage, moyenne sur 4 semaines OCT/31 787K 791K ® 782K
01:30 PM
US
Productivité Non-Agricole En Glissement Trimestriel Prél Q3 4.9% 10.6% ® 5.6% 5%
01:30 PM
US
Coût Unitaire Du Travail En Glissement Trimestriel Prél Q3 -8.9% 8.5% ® -11.5% -10%
03:00 PM
DE
Discours de la Bundesbank Weidmann
07:00 PM
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Fed Décision De Taux D'Intérêt 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
07:30 PM
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Conférence de presse de la Fed
09:30 PM
AU
Index des services du groupe Ai OCT 51.4 36.2 37
06/11/2020 Actuel Précédent Consensus Prévisions
12:30 AM
AU
Déclaration de la RBA sur la politique monétaire
07:00 AM
DE
Production Industrielle (Mensuel) SEP 1.6% 0.5% ® 2.7% 2.5%
07:45 AM
FR
Balance Commerciale SEP €-5.8B €-7.7B €-6.32B €-6.7B
08:30 AM
GB
Indice Des Prix À Halifax Maison (Mensuel) OCT 0.3% 1.5% ® 0.5% 0.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Indice Des Prix À Halifax Maison (Annuel) OCT 7.5% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3%
09:00 AM
IT
Ventes au détail (mensuelles) SEP -0.8% 8.2% -2.6%
12:00 PM
BR
Taux D'Inflation (Annuel) OCT 3.92% 3.14% 3.9% 4%
01:30 PM
CA
Modification d'emploi OCT 83.6K 378.2K 100K 110K
01:30 PM
CA
Emploi À Temps Plein Var OCT 69.1K 334K 40K
01:30 PM
CA
Emploi À Temps Partiel Var OCT 14.5K 44.2K ® 70K
01:30 PM
CA
Le Taux De Participation OCT 65.2% 65% 65% 65.1%
01:30 PM
CA
Taux De Chômage OCT 8.9% 9% 8.8% 9%
01:30 PM
US
Paiements non agricoles OCT 638K 672K ® 600K 510K
01:30 PM
US
Taux De Chômage OCT 6.9% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7%
02:00 PM
CA
Discours du gouverneur de la BoC Macklem
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Schembri Speech
03:00 PM
CA
Ivey Pmi Sa OCT 54.5 54.3 51.5 52
03:00 PM
US
Les Stocks De Gros (Mensuelle) SEP 0.4% 0.5% ® -0.1% -0.1%
04:00 PM
RU
Taux D'Inflation (Annuel) OCT 4% 3.7% 4% 3.8%
07/11/2020 Actuel Précédent Consensus Prévisions
03:00 AM
CN
Balance Commerciale OCT $58.44B $37B $46B $42B
03:00 AM
CN
Exportations (Annuelle) OCT 11.4% 9.9% 9.3% 9%
03:00 AM
CN
Importations (Annuel) OCT 4.7% 13.2% 9.5% 10.5%
08/11/2020 Actuel Précédent Consensus Prévisions
11:50 PM
JP
Résumé des opinions de la BoJ





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